March 2026 FIRE Portfolio Update: Wartime Means Market Crash

March 2026 was the beginning of a new era in history as the US (yet again) starts a pointless war in the Middle East at the beckon and call of Israel. Markets reacted violently to the news and sold off the most of any calendar month since the 2022 Taper tantrum crash. kicked off the new year with strong gains across the market before mild pullbacks on geopolitical tensions and market valuations. Ultimately, the month eked out small gains with the S&P hitting new highs multiple times throughout the month. The markets pulled back into the end of the month as a new FED chair was picked which brought clarity and volatility to the markets.

If you haven’t already read my posts before, I achieved Financial independence back in late 2020 early 2021 with a portfolio of roughly $1.3m invested in mainly ETFs. This ballooned to $1.7m during the peak of the markets in early 2022 before coming back down to Earth later in 2022. The portfolio has since regained new all time highs as markets rally beyond the previous highs.

This post will be part of a monthly series of portfolio updates that summarizes how my portfolio performed, what trades I executed, what my monthly expenses were, and my general outlook on the economy/markets. This is by no means financial advice so do not look look at me for sage advice. I make stupid trades and make even worse losses quite frequently.

This is simply the performance of my portfolio and how it has performed on a month to month basis.

Monthly Highlights – March 2026

• Net worth is at $2.7m as of March 2026 Month end
• -$150k for the month
• In March, we traveled to the Maldives again

Market Moves

What is in my portfolio?

My portfolio is quite simple and straight forward. I have my holdings primarily spread out between a few ETFs, fixed income, and various single name stocks.

ETFs

Again, my primary holdings are in a few ETFs. My primary holdings are in VTI, VGT, and VCR. I’ve always been a big proponent of big tech and have been heavily invested in the Nasdaq for over a decade. This has paid off very well for me given the massive bull market of the 2010s and is essentially what allowed me to FIRE so quickly.

I used to hold more dividend generating stocks as I was really into this type of investing at a period of time. I currently do not have many dividend specific ETFs as I prefer growth more than income. This kind of goes against the ethos of financial independence but I have enough money coming in from other sources that I don’t need to focus so much on consistent income from my investments.

As markets rallied again to all time highs, I didn’t add much to my position like I did in May 2025. I’m comfortable holding a bit more cash than normal and will wait for more opportunities to arise.

Single name stocks

Some of the single name stocks I own are the following

• RDDT
• ANET
• TEM
• NFLX
• RITM
• ASML
• ARES

These single name stocks make up less than 5% of my total portfolio. I tend to not buy much single name stocks anymore as there’s no point to take on unnecessary risks when I’m already so diversified with my ETFs.

Real Estate

I currently own no real estate. I used to own property in the US but have sold it in 2022 before rates started rising. I am not a big fan of real estate. While it definitely can be a good investment, I don’t think it beats investing in the markets. In addition, real estate is highly illiquid with high transaction costs that few people consider.

Finally, as someone that travels around the world and does not like to be tied down to one location, real estate doesn’t make sense as managing it from afar creates a bunch of headaches. I much prefer to have my money liquid and in the stock market.

Fixed Income

I also purchased I-Bonds in 2022 at the height of inflation peak when I-Bonds were paying 9.5%. The rates have come down significantly since then as inflation itself has come down and I no longer bother with I-Bonds.

In the recent high interest rate environment, I had allocated a small portion of my portfolio to fixed income products, specifically purchasing treasury bills with 3-6 month expiry. These were paying out 5.5% which was a great guaranteed income generator. In recent months on the back of anticipated FED rate cuts, this rate was always going to come down which meant stocks should increase.

Well the FED cut rates for the first time since COVID in Sep 2024 which means treasury bill returns will be decreasing for the foreseeable future. My last treasury bill expired in July 2024 and that cash was used to buy the market. I suspect I will not buy any fixed income products for the foreseeable future.

Market Commentary – March 2026

March was entirely about the war in Iran. Starting at the beginning of the month, the US and Israel invaded Iran in what is another completely and disastrous war in the Middle East that will make everyone poorer and likely destabilize the region again.

March was a reminder that markets can go from complacent to very serious in a hurry. By late month, the S&P 500 was down 6.8% for March, and on March 27 it closed at 6,368.85, while the Nasdaq finished at 20,948.36 after another sharp down day. What changed wasn’t some mystery in the data. It was a brutal repricing of geopolitical risk, higher energy costs, and the growing realization that the market had been too comfortable with the idea that inflation was dead and rate cuts were just around the corner.

From where I sit, the war is idiotic and unnecessary, and the policy backdrop has looked more like improvisation than strategy. Israel’s war mongering machine and Trump’s clown-show style of headline diplomacy may be good at generating noise, but markets hate noise when oil supply, inflation expectations, and global growth are all on the line. The result has been a tape that keeps lurching between false hope and renewed fear, with every ceasefire rumor or threat to energy infrastructure sending investors from relief to risk-off and back again. 

Technically, the damage is real. Reuters reported that by March 26 the Nasdaq had confirmed a correction, closing 10.7% below its October 29 record high. More importantly, the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all fell below their 200-day moving averages during the month, which is one of the clearest signs that momentum has deteriorated. Market breadth also weakened materially: on March 19 Reuters noted the Nasdaq logged 276 new lows versus just 30 new highs, and on March 26 decliners overwhelmed advancers again as semis rolled over and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 4.8%. In other words, this wasn’t just a cosmetic dip in the headline indexes; the internals worsened too. 

Many had hoped the war would be brief like Venezeula but everyone including the Executive branch is waking up to the idea that Iran is nothing like Venezeula and a prolonged conflict is likely the most plausible solution. Nothing good has come from war and this war especially seems like a complete disaster of policy.

Back in the early 2000s, I remember that there was much more unanimous support of Bush’s war in Afghanistan and Iraq. Perhaps that’s because we had less access to information but I vividly remember how people in the US (and the world) rallied around the cause. Obviously we all know how disastrous that ended and the generations of civil chaos that ensued. This time around, it seems like everyone except for Trump’s MAGA worshippers believe the war is completely idiotic and many more have come to see Israel’s Government for the condemned, expantionist, and brutal regime that it is. I suppose that is a silver lining but unfortunately history repeats.

Markets were drastically oversold towards the end of the month with prices being outside of the Bollinger bands and RSI went below the critical 30 level. After some positive news from Trump, markets bounced heavily from oversold levels and recovered into the end of the month. The only thing that will end the pain for the markets is TACO (Trump always chickens out). I’m not sure what Trump’s end goal in Iran is but he could simply say all their objectives were achieved, leave Iran, and markets would go back to the highs. In the end, MAGA diehards would support him no matter what and the rest never wanted the war anyway so he controls his own destiny (and the markets). Until then, he can continue pumping and dumping the markets to his own preference.

Crazy that this is the kind of society we live in.

Market Value of Portfolio

Here is a history of my portfolio value. As you can see, it’s moved in line with the markets as should be the case since most of my holdings are in ETFs that track the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.

In Sep 2025, I added my partner’s portfolio to the mix. I’ve avoided doing this for some time as this blog was mainly for my personal purposes but as we are a family now, it’s time to just aggregate everything for the blog purposes.

Trades executed for the month of March 2026

March was a month where long puts and short calls would have won the day. I did not trade as much as I could have because I wanted to see how the war played out. I don’t think it will be as prolonged as most people think because I still believe in the TACO trade.

Most of my portfolio is concentrated in big cap tech which was underperformed the market for the last half a year or so. I think it’s a matter of time before they have their day again.

In February, I had a lot of my short puts go in the money for stocks like Google and VGT. That didn’t work out well for me as markets kept declining as March churned along. I sold more SNDK puts in the month of March which has been successful since that stock keeps bouncing after any sell off.

Summary of stock and ETF purchases

Portfolio withdrawals and expenses

Withdrawals from my portfolio is an important part of the financial independence ethos. The 4% withdrawal rate rule is one of the main concepts of the FIRE movement which I try to adhere to. Generally, I prefer to sell from my portfolio when markets are near or at all time highs to capture, and only when I actually need the cash.

For the month of February and March 2026, we went back to the Maldives for my 4th visit to the beautiful archipelago. I never tire visiting the Maldives and this tiem we were lucky enough to visit not one but two hotels! We stayed a week in the country staying at the Alila Kothaifaru and Waldorf Astoria Itaafushi.

Both resorts were incredible and I’ve written in great length about my experience at both places.

I booked the Waldorf Astoria on a points stay with my stash of Hilton points I had been saving for this trip. The property is the most expensive hotel in Hilton’s portfolio and it was truly a special experience. I stayed at the Ritz Carlton Fari Islands on two occasions (Marriott’s flagship property in the Maldives) and the Waldorf was on the same level.

We made no withdrawals from the portfolio as we had enough cash coming in from my blog as well as leftover cash from other sources. My blog generates money every month to the tune of $5k or more and I cover exactly how I earn money from blogging in other posts.

Expenses for March 2026

Living in Bali, we are able to keep our expenses (relatively) low given the lower cost of living. However, we live life to the fullest and do whatever we want, whenever we want. We choose to live in a very nice villa, a super nice gym, and eating out at the nicest restaurants in Bali. Our expenses for the month were very high given that we bought a lot of flights and traveled around Saudi Arabia.

Historically, I was accrual accounting our expenses but I’ve decided going forward I will cash account all our expenses which is much more realistic as far actual financial management goes. A lot of our expenses in Bali are paid for upfront for multiple months. Things like rent are paid upfront as well as the gym (discount for paying multiple months upfront).

In total, our expenses for the month are as follows in Bali.

For the month, we kept spending in check. The majority of our expenses always fell into the travel budget as we are always booking flights. This month was not one of those months as we had very fewer flights and hotels to book.

Earnings for the month

While the portfolio is the main source of financial security, we still have income coming from other sources. After all, if you can make money doing something you love, why not?

In our case, we have income coming from my blog which I will detail the numbers in the next section. My partner works part time at a travel related company and also brings in income to help with the monthly expenses.

My March 2026 Blog Earnings

I always give a run down on my monthly blogging income on these monthly portfolio reports because this is about my blog after all. My blog generates quite a lot of money from many years of hard work that it is a huge supplement to my FIRE portfolio.

• Johnny Africa 2025 Blog earnings
• Johnny Africa 2024 Blog earnings
• Johnny Africa 2023 Blog earnings
• Johnny Africa 2022 Blog earnings

My full 2025 blog earnings report has finally been released via my post in the links above. I made a total of $75k from blogging in 2025 which was an absolute monstrous and record year.

I earn money from blogging primarily from ads and sponsorships. My ads are managed by Mediavine which I joined in May 2024. In addition to Mediavine advertisements, I also earn money from Affiliate programs, sponsorships, and travel planning. More details on these things in my how to make money blogging posts.

In March, the general trend of blogging has been on the decline. While my traffic numbers have remained consistent, ad spending has declined. This is consistent with Q1 trends historically as companies tend to stop spending after the holidays. However, I think 2026 has trended lower compared to previous years. Companies are spending less in a world of global uncertainty, conflict, and potential stagflation.

My blog earnings have dropped in March and it feels like the overall trend will be down for the foreseeable future.

Here is a breakdown of my monthly earnings.